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But more importantly, I’m also going to give you a private equity case study interview presentation template you can copy, paste, and re- use. You’re also going to learn why you cannot believe much of what the mainstream media says when it comes to deal analysis and finance- related topics. With this Dell deal, for example, 9. Michael Dell’s sweet deal to claim ~7. However, those factors – particularly the market declines – make much less of a difference in this deal compared to points that few other people were even talking about. It’s a classic example of everyone thinking one way about a deal or company when something else altogether mattered more. Recapping This Case Study.
In Part 1, we went through how to find data on the deal and set up the basic model. Part 2 was about making revenue and expense projections, Part 3 was about how to set up the debt schedules, and Part 4 was about how to model post- buyout add- on acquisitions. You can understand this article and tutorial without having read any of those, but you’ll get more of it if you’ve been through the first 4 parts. The Deal is Done! The main update since last time is that shareholders (amazingly) approved the deal in September. Many firms already lost so much on Dell that they figured it was probably better to cut their losses at this stage. Carl Icahn, of course, was pissed, but that always seems to be the case. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Since I was getting approximately 53 emails per day about this one, I decided to make it easier and just tell you everything you need to know about private equity. At ATB Financial, we put people first. We've been doing it for more than 75 years. In that time, we've grown from one small Treasury Branch to become the largest. The Presentation, the Template, and the Video Tutorial. Here you go: And here are all the files you’ll need: I highly recommend full- screening this video in 7. If you’re reading this via email, click here to view the video and this post. Table of Contents. Introduction & Case Study Structure Overview. Overview of Private Equity Case Study Template Presentation. Executive Summary. Market Overview and Qualitative Factor Slides. Discussion of Operating Scenarios. LBO Model Output and Sensitivities. What If We’re Wrong? What Factors Could Make the Deal Work? Conclusions and Summary. Previously in Private Equity Interviews. Asking Price and/or Current Market Value. Revenue, Expenses, and the Scenarios You’ve Built. LBO Model Output. Commentary on the Numbers – Which cases are most / least likely? Why? The Downside Scenario(s) – VERY important for buy- side modeling and analysis because you will lose your money if you’re wrong. Slides 1. 7 – 1. 9 – The Counter- Factual – Would anything cause your opinion to change? What could cause your recommendation to be incorrect? How can you hedge yourself? Slide 2. 0 – Conclusions – Similar to the first slide, but now you can reference more of the numbers and specifics you highlighted in the preceding slides. You can see an example of this structure in the blank presentation template file right here. If you only have 1. In this case study, we’re skipping over the valuation aspect because we’re analyzing a real deal that actually happened and we’ve been asked to offer our thoughts on it as- is. You would have to do more work on that in case studies based on potential deals. The Crux of the Deal: Who Cares About Market Growth – Got Margins? In a “Base Case” scenario, this deal looks reasonable. We get fairly high IRRs with our baseline assumptions, ranging from 2. But the “Base Case” scenario here is very rosy since we assume that the Operating Margin increases by almost 2% over 5 years. There is very, very little evidence to support margins staying the same or increasing and a lot of evidence to support the opposite case. As a result, we recommend against buying the company because those Downside cases represent too much risk, the company provides limited information on margins by segment, and there is almost no way to hedge against a risk like pricing pressure in the company’s core markets. Slide 1: Executive Summary. Keep this simple – 5- 6 bullets at the most. State a clear recommendation in the first bullet, followed by a few supporting factors (the numbers work / don’t work, the market is growing / shrinking and the company is well- positioned / not well- positioned, etc.). Slides 2 – 6: Qualitative Factors That Support Your Conclusion. In these slides, you can focus on the overall market, the company’s competitors, potential growth opportunities, and deal/company- specific factors. Here, we point out how Dell is in many different markets, each of which has different profile: PCs and Laptops: Flat to negative growth, with a declining market share for Dell. Servers & Networking: Growing modestly and Dell’s share is increasing. Services: Unclear how big the market is, but Dell’s backlog is growing at a good clip and this has been an area of focus for them, especially overseas. Software & Peripherals: Flat growth due to falling hardware sales but rising software sales. Storage: Very small, but also essentially flat growth. Dell has performed well against the competition in services and software, but it’s unclear how well it will do as an end- to- end IT provider against the likes of IBM and HP. And, of course, it’s a bit of a disaster against lower- priced desktop/laptop competitors and premium competitors (e. Apple). Dell’s best growth opportunities are to increase its Servers/Networking market share, grow indirect sales (i. Some older investor presentations have numbers, but there’s nothing very recent / helpful. The most likely outcome is that their performance will be somewhere between the “Street Consensus” case and our “Base Case” – in other words, revenue will decline modestly and margins will also decline. If Dell really earns very little Operating Income from its declining business segments, we might be more confident of its ability to maintain its margins over 3- 5 years. As it stands, though, the data is ambiguous at best. Interestingly, the numbers “work” at first glance because: The company still generates $3. Free Cash Flow each year, even in more pessimistic scenarios. It traded at an EV / EBITDA of 3. Dell is repatriating close to $1. Michael Dell is rolling over his equity. And as a result of all that, Silver Lake barely contributes any of its own equity – $1. It gets over 2x that equity contribution in FCF in just the first year! Of course, the “Downside” cases here don’t look too pretty, which is the main reason we’re recommending against investing. Yes, on a bright sunny day when leprechauns are dancing in the forest every deal looks great. The “blank template” file will also come in handy. Oh, and subscribe to our You. Tube channel to get even more tutorials and videos. Between now and the end of the year, I’m going to add more shorter 5- 1. That’s All For Now. With that, we’re done with this case study. The full 2. 4- part case study that goes into more granular detail is already available on BIWS if you’ve signed up for one of the modeling courses there. We’re gradually adding more You. Tube videos to the M& I / BIWS channel, and I may do another case study like this one next year. But it’s really up to you: articles/tutorials like this one tend to get a poor response rate since they’re so dense and packed with information. 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